Beating the Financial Futures Market: Combining Small Biases by Art Collins

By Art Collins

Beating the monetary Futures marketplace provide you with an easy, traditionally confirmed software to chop in the course of the noise, verify what bits of knowledge are priceless, and combine these bits into an total buying and selling application designed to leap on profitable buying and selling possibilities as they happen. it is going to assist you enhance either your percent of profitable trades and the base line profitability of these profitable trades.

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The “whole” vastly exceeds the sum of the parts. Hands down, our combined line four system is the better alternative. Still, these are not the kind of solid results we’d like to see in order to actually trade a mechanical system. Let’s see if we can boost our prospects by adding still more indicators. qxd 8/10/06 9:01 AM Page 35 CHAPTER 10 Cuing Off Relative Range Sizes O ne technical trading adage has it that decisive momentum moves tend to spring out of tight ranges. There is even a technical term— coiling.

My experience is that markets do drift, and part of the optimization process (to be discussed later) is periodically adjusting for that fact without overdoing it, so that you become a dog chasing its tail. ) My success as a mechanical system trader has hinged on simple concepts. I used to knock them dead with a daily 30 year T Bond system that keyed off the basis points. Bonds trade in full points and 32d increments, so you see prices that are 110 and 23 32ds (11023), 114 and no 32ds (11400), and so on.

The remaining three markets have stand-outs in different places. For the NASDAQ, the simple 40-day average beats the composite. For the Russell and the yen, it’s the order of the 50-day extreme high/low closes. So far so good. We have no evidence that any of our ideas are superfluous statistical flukes. There’s something else to bear in mind when comparing net profits in the combined system to the sum of the individual ones. To do a true apples-to-apples evaluation, we must be mindful of the fact that we’d be trading one contract on each of the individual components (three total) versus only one contract on the combined line four system.

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