Dave Landry On Swing Trading by Daniel Lincoln, Dave Landry

By Daniel Lincoln, Dave Landry

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The Factor Trading Plan is based upon the following set of assumptions: The likely direction of any given market cannot be determined by studying charts. Charts are a trading tool, not a predictive tool. Charts can provide traders with a slight edge, but should not be used to make price forecasts. Charts should not be used to maintain a constant opinion or position in any given market. Do not assume that the next trade will be profitable. More often than not a market will defy what its chart structure implies.

I want to address this underdiscussed aspect of market speculation. Chapter 1 The History and Theory of Classical Charting Principles Speculators have used charts to make trading decisions for centuries. It is generally believed that candlestick charts in their earliest form were developed in the 18th century by a legendary Japanese rice trader named Homma Munehisa. Munehisa realized that there was a link between the price of rice and its supply-and-demand factors, but that market price was also driven by the emotions of market participants.

I may think I know, but in reality I do not know. History has shown that my degree of certainty about a given market’s direction is inversely correlated with what actually happens. In fact, I think a trader with excellent money management practices could take the other side of trades in which I have a strong belief and make money consistently. About 30 to 35 percent of my trades over an extended period of time will be profitable. The probability of my very next trade being profitable is less than 30 percent.

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